Why Thinking About Alternative Futures Matters

We are living in an increasingly complex and interconnected world where powerful forces (drivers) are influencing and reshaping the foundations of society and, therefore, education and research. These drivers do not act in isolation; their convergence creates both disruption and opportunity, challenging traditional models of knowledge and institutional purpose, as the environment becomes uncertain and/or unpredictable.

Understanding these drivers is essential not only to remain relevant but to make better decisions and prepare for a future that is already here. With futuring as an organisational capability, we have found a way of identifying, understanding and assessing shifts and changes to anticipate.

As education is a complex ecosystem, we are required to think collectively about alternative futures and practice futures thinking. The digital transformation is too big and a complex challenge for a single institution or organisation to take on. Therefore, we need to create platforms where there is a level playing field for all actors of the ecosystem. With different tools, techniques, but also by inviting diverse voices to take part in a dialogue. Often, this is easier said than done, but once you get the feeling for it, it becomes easier to facilitate such dialogues.

At SURF, in my role as Lead Futurist, I support education and research to reflect not just on what is emerging, but what could emerge under different assumptions. Our SURF Tech Trends reports are one example: they do more than report what’s already here. They scan, explore (weak) signals, and explore potential impact on education and research. The SURF Tech Trends reports are not a prediction but serve as a conversation starter. Therefore, we combine and expand our work with whitepapers on emerging concepts, various workshops and seminars and explore different formats to make futures thinking and complex topics more accessible.

The SURF Tech Trends 2026 is released this month (Oct ’25) can be accessed here

Applying futuring to the European Digital Education Hub (EDEH)

In mid-2024, I was approached by EDEH about a new squad on futuring. After a few online sessions in which we discussed the why, what and how, the squad got formed quite quickly as we asked: “What could digital education in 2040 look like?”. With various voices, we have been exploring dimensions such as emerging learning modalities, tomorrow’s infrastructure, changing student and educator roles, ethics and regulation, global vs local pressures, and more. Eventually, four alternative scenarios are delivered to demonstrate and challenge current assumptions about the future of education.

“What will education look like in 2040?”. In my presentation at OEB 2025, “Reimagining Education: Scenarios for a Digital Future”. I will present four alternative scenarios from the “Future Learner: (Digital) Education Reimagined for 2040” report. The scenarios help illuminate how decisions we make today (about policy, about investment, about pedagogy, ethics, and infrastructure) ripple outward. A common fallacy is people thinking they can’t influence future directions. But all the decisions, big or small, we make individually and collectively already influence how and which future unfolds.

In just four alternative futures where technology, policy, society, and the values we hold intersect, we can spark discussions about our decisions to make. These scenarios are not predictions; they are tools for exploring possibilities, for exposing tensions, for surfacing choices. What if regulation tightens? What if technology advances unbounded? What if economic constraints intensify? What if societal values shift in ways we do not yet fully imagine? The goal: providing insights to leaders, educators, and institutions to navigate uncertainty.

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Connecting the Dots: From scenarios to strategy

A common pitfall I encounter with organisations relates to strategy documents and institutional plans. Often, strategies are designed and developed with (hidden) assumptions made by individuals who are part of the writing process. Having said this, I would like to invite you all to look at your organisation’s strategy and ask yourself: which future does my organisation envision? Which future does this strategy enable? What happens if an alternative future unfolds, and will this strategy still hold?

An ambition I have in my role as lead Futurist is to dive into collective decision-making for the long term. So far, we have enabled discussions and facilitated dialogue, but to get through the digital transformation, we need a shared vision and to align the strategic objectives supported by futuring. Aligning voices, values, and agendas is next level, but once we realise our common goal, we can use our differences to enrich the dialogues for a greater cause: education for all.

Let’s build futures together

If you are attending OEB, I invite you to join me in exploring these scenarios, not as spectators, but as collaborators. Feel free to reach out at any given moment to me or my co-authors to share your views, ask questions or engage with us. Through our values, our constraints, our technologies, and our choices, we shape collectively the future of education not only in our own countries but also in Europe (and beyond).

And whether or not you come to the OEB session, consider engaging with EDEH by joining a squad or engaging with other like-minded educational professionals.



Written for OEB 2025 by Gül Akcaova