Whose Future Is It Anyway? Charting the Global Trajectory of Online Learning

By Glenda Morgan, Phil Hill & Associates & Morgan EdTech Strategies

In EdTech, we love shiny things. Right now, it’s AI that dominates headlines and conference stages. These technologies are interesting and exciting, and they do matter, but history suggests we consistently overestimate their short-term impact while underestimating their long-term significance.

That pattern hides something important: often it’s the less glamorous, “boring” parts of EdTech that ultimately reshape higher education. Online learning by which I mean fully online courses and programs offered to students at a distance, is one of those forces. It may not move at the speed at which innovations in AI currently do, or grab headlines the way AI does, but I predict that over the next three to five years online learning will profoundly change the global higher education landscape.

But how will online learning evolve and what actions should we be taking to make sure it changes and grows in the ways that we want it to, in ways that embody the kinds of values and the quality of learning and access upon which we should insist.

I am not a futurist and do not aspire to be one. The way I seek to understand the global trajectory of online learning is by asking questions about the vectors of change, the forces pushing on and shaping online learning currently. I think about these forces in the form of a series of questions.

The Key Vectors of Change

How much will online grow?

In the US online learning has been growing steadily since at least 2012 and has sped up since the pandemic. But at what point will growth level out and reach a steady state? In most places outside the US online learning is growing more slowly and the pandemic had a slightly different impact. What is growth going to look like in the future, and when will it plateau?

How will growth reshape institutions?

How does the growth of online programs change the identity of primarily campus-based institutions?  What happens when online learning shifts from being a side project to a defining institutional feature?

How international will online become?

Thus far, in most countries online education has been largely a domestic affair. But this is starting to shift.  As countries like the U.S., Canada, the U.K., and Australia tighten restrictions on international students, online delivery may increasingly become the global alternative. If so, how will it work, and who will it serve? How will emerging online markets like India and Singapore affect the growth of online learning?

How concentrated will online learning markets get?

In the US, large higher education institutions dominate online learning, with the top ten institutions enrolling nearly 18% of all online students. Will concentration increase, consolidating power among a few mega-providers? Or will new entrants emerge to serve different student segments? Do more online providers make online learning more affordable and accessible? Will we see the pattern of some large providers dominating the market repeat itself in other countries as their online learning presence grows?

What about online learning at scale?

Massive providers like Coursera and FutureLearn now offer large-scale degree programs through institutions such as the University of Illinois, HEC Paris, the University of Huddersfield, and the University of London. Will these models dominate the online learning space, and succeed in driving down costs, or remain one of many options?

How will marketing evolve?

Marketing is one of the biggest costs of online learning. Can AI and automation drive down those costs by improving targeting, personalisation, and conversion efficiency? Or will escalating competition and reliance on paid advertising further inflate acquisition costs, undermining online learning’s promise of affordability and access?

What role will external service providers play?

Third-party companies such as Online Program Managers (OPMs) and marketing agencies are often deeply embedded in the current online learning ecosystem. Will their role expand as institutions look for partners in scaling, or will the model shift toward more in-house capacity and unbundled services?

Online learning for whom and under what conditions?

Online learning has historically struggled with lower retention and graduation rates. To avoid repeating past mistakes, especially as other countries expand online, we’ll need to rethink how we design courses, supports, and services to center equity and student success. Otherwise, expansion risks reinforcing existing inequities rather than reducing them.

Why This Matters

The future of online learning is not predetermined. Its trajectory will depend on how we address questions of scale, equity, student success, and the trade-offs between access and quality.

Online learning may not be “shiny,” but it is powerful. If stewarded well, it can expand access, affordability, and opportunity worldwide. If handled poorly, it risks widening gaps and undermining trust in higher education itself. What online learning looks like in the future will depend on the kinds of decisions that are made in response to each of these vectors of change.

Join me for my talk on Charting the Global Trajectory of Online Learning at OEB in Berlin in December. I’ll share insights from global trends, policy shifts, and case studies, and leave you with a roadmap of questions to guide institutional strategy.


Written for OEB 2025 by Glenda Morgan, Phil Hill & Associates & Morgan EdTech Strategies.


Join Morgan for her Presentation “Whose Future Is It Anyway? Charting the Global Trajectory of Online Learning” at OEB25.