Maybe It’s Not About the Skills: Rethinking How We Prepare for What’s Next

Picture the scene. You’re sitting in a leadership meeting, reviewing the results of your organisation’s latest skills gap analysis. There’s talk of reskilling for AI, strengthening digital capabilities, and boosting agility across the board. Someone mentions a new framework. Someone else asks for a dashboard. Everyone agrees something must be done.

But there’s a quiet question that lingers in the back of your mind: What if we’re solving the wrong problem?

We live in a time where the only certainty is change. And yet, many of our efforts to prepare for the future are still based on an old assumption: that we can predict what people will need to know, and teach it to them in time. That assumption is becoming harder and harder to sustain.

The trouble with prediction

Most upskilling strategies are based on the idea that if we can define future roles, we can define the skills those roles require. But the world of work no longer operates in neat, predictable patterns. Technologies evolve, job titles shift, and business models change overnight.

We map out future roles like planners packing for a trip, but without knowing the destination, the terrain, or even the weather. We hope the map will be accurate by the time people arrive. Often, it isn’t.

This doesn’t mean that skills don’t matter. They do. But the way we approach them might.

When we fixate on identifying and delivering the “right” skills in advance, we risk creating systems that are too rigid to respond to change. Learners end up chasing checklists. Organisations become slower, not faster.

A shift in thinking

So what if we looked at it differently? What if, instead of focusing on predicting the future, we focused on helping people perform well in the present, while building the capacity to adapt?

This shift, from predictive skills mapping to performance-based learning and adaptability, changes the questions we ask.

Instead of asking, “What skills will we need in five years?” we might ask, “What’s getting in the way of performance right now?” Or: “What conditions help people learn and adjust on the job?”

This leads us toward more dynamic, embedded, and responsive approaches. Learning that supports real-world tasks. Knowledge that flows freely across teams. Cultures where it’s safe to try, to ask, and to grow.

It also puts the focus back on people. Not just as roles to be filled or skills to be deployed, but as active participants in shaping the future.

Signs of progress

Across sectors, I see encouraging signs of this shift. Organisations are starting to:

• Build learning into daily workflows rather than separating it from the work itself
• Encourage self-directed learning based on interest, need, and context
• Capture and share internal knowledge in more accessible ways
• Move beyond rigid competency models to support broader capability development

These are not one-size-fits-all solutions. They require reflection, experimentation, and a willingness to let go of some control. But they also create space for growth that is more human, more timely, and ultimately more effective.

A shared conversation

In December, I’ll be facilitating a Boardroom Dialogue at the OEB Global Conference in Berlin on this very topic. It’s called: Don’t Call It Upskilling: Preparing People for a Future We Can’t Predict.

The session will begin with a short framing introduction to set the stage, followed by an open and focused dialogue. Just a focused, facilitated conversation with fellow L&D leaders, HR strategists, and changemakers who want to explore:

• What future-readiness really means
• Where traditional strategies fall short
• How we can better support performance, learning, and adaptability at the same time

If you’ve ever questioned the race to reskill, or wondered how to future-proof your people without relying on guesswork, I invite you to join the discussion.

Because maybe it’s not just about the skills. Maybe it’s about the systems, the cultures, and the choices we make today. To help people thrive in a world we can’t fully predict.

Written for OEB 2025 by Geraldine Voost, Learning Strategist.